考虑氯离子侵蚀时变劣化效应的近海斜拉桥地震易损性分析

为研究氯离子侵蚀对近海大型桥梁地震易损性的时变影响规律,以某近海斜拉桥为对象,建立非线性数值模型并开展增量动力分析,获得主塔等构件及桥梁系统的时变易损性曲线.结果表明,材料腐蚀会导致构件及结构的损伤概率出现不同程度的增加.桥梁结构第1阶自振周期对应的谱加速度Sa(T1)为0.3g时,主塔严重损伤的概率在0、25、50、75、100a五种服役时间下分别为0、8.9％、12.1％、22.1％和35.1％.不同构件的损伤概率差异显著,服役时间为100 a,Sa(T1)= 0.15g时,主塔、桥墩、桩、支座、拉索严重损伤的概率分别为0、0、21.0％、97.4％、6.4％.对于轻微损伤、中等损伤及严重损伤状态,系统易损性主要取决于支座的损伤概率;完全破坏状态则主要取决于桩的损伤概率.因此应重视沿海桥梁抗震性能的时变劣化,在桥梁设计中考虑环境侵蚀的影响.     

Ordinary language philosophy,explanation, and the historical turn in philosophy of science

Taking a cue from remarks Thomas Kuhn makes in 1990 about the historical turn in philosophy of science, I examine the history of history and philosophy of science within parts of the British philosophical context in the 1950s and early 1960s. During this time, ordinary language philosophy's influence was at its peak. I argue that the ordinary language philosophers' methodological recommendation to analyze actual linguistic practice influences several prominent criticisms of the deductive-nomological model of scientific explanation and that these criticisms relate to the historical turn in philosophy of science. To show these connections, I primarily examine the work of Stephen Toulmin, who taught at Oxford from 1949 to 1954, and Michael Scriven, who completed a dissertation on explanation under Gilbert Ryle and R.B. Braithwaite in 1956. I also consider Mary Hesse's appeal to an ordinary language-influenced account of meaning in her account of the role of models and analogies in scientific reasoning, and W.H. Watson's Wittgensteinian philosophy of science, an early influence on Toulmin. I think there are two upshots to my historical sketch. First, it fills out details of the move away from logical positivism to more historical- and practice-focused philosophies of science. Second, questions about linguistic meaning and the proper targets and aims of philosophical analysis are part and parcel of the historical turn, as well as its reception. Looking at the philosophical background during which so-called linguistic philosophers also had a hand in bringing these questions to prominence helps us understand why.     

Syndrome du jour: The historiography and moral implications of Diagnosing Darwin

Diagnosing Darwin's health problems has a long history. Innumerable diagnoses have been proffered in letters, articles, and a handful of dedicated books. Diagnostic speculation has exhibited contrasting somatogenic or psychogenic preferences. Psychogenic accounts dominated mid-century but were soon challenged by somatic explanations citing specific infectious or toxic aetiologies. This tension remains, although psychogenic accounts have tended to be swamped by an array of somatogenic diagnoses championed by biomedical specialists. As a whole, this parade of diagnoses has a striking syndrome du jour quality. Successive conjectures speak of the preoccupations and diagnostic fads of their particular age. Moreover, for many participants in this diagnostic game, unconscious presentism combined with self-serving projection, turning the question of what ailed Darwin into something of a Rorschach test. Never far from the surface was a sometimes-fraught tussle over the man's reputation, animated by the moral valences of the conjectures in play. In a broader sense, this diagnostic game has shaped biographical accounts of Darwin and his career in some significant ways.     

原位孔内剪切试验在路基边坡支护设计中的应用

为了对边坡的合理设计提供严密的参考依据,采用原位孔内剪切试验测试了某路基边坡填土的抗剪强度,对不同工况下的边坡支护效果开展数值模拟分析.结果表明,该路基边坡填土压实质量欠佳,呈现轻微的应变硬化特征,其内摩擦角为24°,黏聚力为12 kPa.采用桩基托梁挡墙支护后,边坡最大横向位移可以降低76.5％～84.5％,且随着桩长的增加,边坡变形逐渐减小,但减小幅度呈下降趋势;边坡全局应变水平相比支护前也有所减小,局部最大剪应变明显降低,滑弧特征被削弱.因此,可采用原位孔内剪切试验较为准确地获取边坡填土的强度参数,使得边坡支护设计更合理.     

The futility of decision making research

We have each spent more than 50 years doing research that has had little impact. Even more lamentable is that our field, judgment and decision making (JDM), has on the whole had little impact during that span. We attribute that failure to the use of methodologies that emphasize testing models rather than looking for differences in behavior. The “cognitive revolution” led the field astray, toward the goal of studying model fit rather than comparing observable results. With modeling as the goal, experimentation was stultified. Simple tasks became dominant. Although a poor metaphor for real decision making, the gambling paradigm has lasted forever because the inputs to the decision are known to the researcher and thus easily modeled.     

Development of gas tungsten arc welding using current pulsing technique to preclude chromium carbide precipitation in aerospace-grade alloy 80A

Weldments were produced using gas tungsten arc welding(GTAW) and pulsed current gas tungsten arc welding(PCGTAW) techniques with ERNiCr-3 filler wire. Macro examination revealed that the resultant weldments were free from defects. A refined microstructure was observed in the weldment fabricated through PCGTAW. Scanning electron microscopy(SEM) analysis revealed secondary phases in the grain boundaries. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy(EDS) analysis revealed that microsegregation of Cr carbide precipitates was completely eradicated through PCGTAW. The microsegregation of Nb precipitates was observed in the GTA and PCGTA weldments. X-ray diffraction(XRD) analysis revealed the existence of M_(23)C?_6 Cr-rich carbide and Ni_8Nb phases in the GTA weldments. By contrast, in the PCGTA weldments, the Ni_8Nb phase was observed. The Cr_2Ti phase was observed in both the GTA and the PCGTA weldments. Tensile tests showed that the strength and ductility of the PCGTA weldments were slightly higher than those of the GTA weldments.     

基于MSP430F5438A的工业排污督察管理终端设计

工业排污占环境污染高达70％,传统水质监测方法效率低且排污企业暗自偷排、突排污水问题严重,为此设计了一款基于MSP430F5438A和北斗的工业排污督察管理终端.工业排污督察管理终端以MSP430F5438A为核心控制器,利用北斗定位模块定位排污口位置并借助水质检测单元实时采集pH值、温度、浑浊度、溶解氧、氨氮浓度等信息,再通过带有注册包和心跳包功能的GPRS通信模块传输数据至监测中心.实现了对分散式工厂排污的实时远程动态监测,提供实时的水质、位置等信息.实际运行表明,终端运行稳定,相对于其他设计,功耗更低,通信更加灵活,更方便,更安全.     

人类卫生健康共同体视域下的全球科技合作研究——以新冠肺炎疫情为背景

新冠疫情暴发以来,中国政府和人民秉持人类命运共同体理念,运用一系列先进技术,在较短时间内扭转了国内疫情的严峻形势.在此背景下,为了更好地发挥中国方案在全球抗疫中的作用,文章运用内容分析法和归纳分析法,首先梳理了从人类命运共同体到人类卫生健康共同体的理论逻辑,其次探究了人类卫生健康共同体、全球科技合作与疫情防控之间的结构关系,最后分析了中国疫情防控的有效举措,进而得出结论:中国疫情防控工作的成效离不开人类命运共同体理念的指引和全球科技合作的开展,而中国在平台建设、机制整合及合作网络等领域的方案共享将有助于遏制全球疫情的蔓延.     

基于回归-卡尔曼滤波组合模型的航道整治区域船舶交通流时空预测

为分析及预测工程不同阶段航道整治区域船舶交通流量变化,通过确立研究断面,获取交通流数据,对研究断面处的船舶交通流时空特性进行分析.基于现有数据,将回归模型预测值替代卡尔曼滤波模型中的状态转移值,建立回归-卡尔曼滤波组合模型,在卡尔曼滤波模型预测具有实时性的基础上,提高预测精度,并利用历史数据进行了预测.预测结果与实际数据对比验证了回归-卡尔曼滤波组合模型在航道整治区域船舶交通流时空预测方面的有效性与可靠性.